Yes. Based on the latest population estimates, Fredericton appears to have surpassed Saint John in population within municipal boundaries, making Saint John potentially New Brunswick’s third-largest city by city population.
Here’s how the estimated rankings look:
| Rank | City | Estimated Population (2025/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moncton | ~90,000+ |
| 2 | Fredericton | ~79,000 (including annexed areas) |
| 3 | Saint John | 78,165 (July 1, 2024 estimate) |
The change is largely the result of:
- Strong population growth in Fredericton, driven by immigration, students, and interprovincial migration.
- Municipal boundary changes following New Brunswick’s Local Governance Reform, which added thousands of residents to Fredericton’s city population.
An important distinction
If you’re comparing metropolitan areas (CMAs) rather than city boundaries, Saint John remains larger than Fredericton.
Current metropolitan estimates are approximately:
- Moncton CMA: ~185,000
- Saint John CMA: ~142,000
- Fredericton CMA: ~125,000
So:
- City population: Fredericton has likely moved ahead of Saint John.
- Metropolitan population: Saint John remains the province’s second-largest urban region.
This distinction matters because Saint John’s urban area includes substantial neighbouring communities such as Rothesay, Quispamsis, Grand Bay–Westfield, and Hampton, many of whose residents work, shop, and access services in Saint John. As a result, the metropolitan area remains significantly larger than Fredericton’s despite the city population ranking.