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2026 Iran War: Timeline

2026 Iran War: Timeline, Oil Impact, Canada & New Brunswick Effects

Timeline of the 2026 Iran War

February 2026

  • February 28: Large-scale U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iranian targets trigger the current conflict.
  • Iran responds by threatening and then disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

March 2026

  • Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel for the first time in years.
  • Shipping traffic through Hormuz drops dramatically.
  • Governments begin releasing strategic oil reserves.
  • Global stock markets experience sharp volatility.

April 2026

  • Fighting continues at lower intensity.
  • Energy exporters attempt to reroute oil through alternative pipelines and ports.
  • OPEC+ increases production targets to offset lost exports.

May 2026

  • Tensions in the Gulf intensify.
  • Brent crude briefly reaches roughly $113–$126 per barrel during the worst supply fears before retreating.
  • Diplomatic talks begin intermittently but fail to produce a lasting settlement.

Early June 2026

  • Renewed missile, drone, and air-defense activity occurs around Gulf states.
  • The U.S. reports intercepting drones near Hormuz and striking Iranian radar sites.
  • Iran launches missiles toward Gulf countries including Bahrain and Kuwait.
  • Ceasefire negotiations continue but remain fragile.

June 8, 2026

  • Markets remain focused on whether Hormuz can reopen.
  • OPEC+ announces another production increase, but exports remain constrained.
  • Oil prices have eased from their spring peak but remain elevated by historical standards.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.

Why it is critical

  • Roughly 20% of global oil supplies normally pass through it.
  • Major exporters using Hormuz include:
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Iraq
    • Kuwait
    • Qatar
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Iran

When shipping is disrupted:

  • Oil prices rise.
  • Fuel prices increase worldwide.
  • Inflation pressures grow.
  • Stock markets become more volatile.

Latest Oil Price Analysis

Current Brent crude prices are fluctuating around US$93–99 per barrel, well below the spring peak but still much higher than before the war.

Why prices have fallen from the peak

  1. OPEC+ production increases.

Strategic reserve releases.

Slower global demand growth.

  • Hopes for a negotiated reopening of Hormuz.

Risk going forward

Analysts warn that if disruptions continue through summer and inventories keep shrinking, prices could move back toward US$150 per barrel or higher.

How This Could Affect Canada

Gasoline Prices

Canada imports relatively little Middle Eastern oil directly, but oil is globally priced.

Higher world oil prices can mean:

  • More expensive gasoline.
  • Higher diesel costs.
  • Increased transportation expenses.
  • Rising costs for groceries and consumer goods.

Stock Market Impact

The Canadian stock market often benefits from stronger oil prices because of:

  • Alberta oil producers
  • Pipeline companies
  • Energy services firms

However, high oil prices can also:

  • Increase inflation.
  • Delay interest-rate cuts.
  • Slow economic growth.

What It Means for New Brunswick

Positive Effects

New Brunswick’s refinery sector can benefit from stronger refining margins.

The refinery in Saint John may see improved revenues if refined products remain in strong demand.

Negative Effects

Residents could face:

  • Higher gasoline prices.
  • Increased home-heating costs.
  • More expensive food due to transportation costs.
  • Higher airline and travel costs.

Saint John-Specific Outlook

For Saint John residents, the most noticeable effect is likely to be at:

  • Gas stations
  • Grocery stores
  • Travel and transportation services

If oil remains around US$90–100 per barrel, impacts should be manageable. If prices return above US$120–150, Canadians would likely feel much stronger inflationary pressure.

Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the Iran conflict is no longer the fighting itself—it’s whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can fully normalize. As long as uncertainty remains, oil markets, inflation, and economies from the Middle East to Canada and New Brunswick will remain vulnerable to sudden price spikes and market volatility.